Cuba's Fuel Crisis Deepens as Russia Evacuates Tourists, Cigar Fair Postponed, and Refinery Fire Hits Havana

Russia began evacuating thousands of its citizens from Cuba last week after the Caribbean island's fuel crisis — triggered by a US oil embargo — reached a point where airports could no longer guarantee jet fuel for departing aircraft .

The evacuation marks a striking escalation in what analysts are calling Cuba's worst economic crisis since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Russia's federal aviation regulator Rosaviatsia announced on February 11 that Rossiya Airlines and Nordwind Airlines would operate outbound-only flights from Havana and Varadero to Moscow before suspending all Cuban services . Russia's Association of Tour Operators estimated that approximately 5,000 Russian tourists were on the island at the time, many of them state employees for whom Cuba is one of the few approved travel destinations under Russia's strict security-service rules .

The crisis traces back to the Trump administration's January 3 military intervention in Venezuela, in which US forces seized Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro — killing 32 Cuban citizens in the process, according to Havana . Venezuela had been Cuba's most reliable energy supplier. In the weeks that followed, the White House effectively imposed an oil blockade on Cuba, threatening tariffs against any nation that continued selling fuel to the island . Mexico, which had been Cuba's secondary oil supplier, halted shipments under US pressure by January 27. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum called the decision "a sovereign decision," though the timing left little ambiguity about the source of the pressure .

The consequences have been cascading. On February 4, Cuba's eastern provinces — Guantánamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguín, and Granma — experienced a total blackout, while Havana and the western provinces endured severe electricity disruptions . On February 9, Cuban aviation authorities announced they could no longer refuel aircraft at the country's airports, prompting Air Canada and WestJet to cancel all flights to Cuba . Air Canada said it would bring home some 3,000 Canadian tourists already on the island.

The ripple effects continued into this weekend. On Saturday, Habanos S.A. — the global monopoly on Cuban cigar sales — announced the postponement of its 26th annual cigar fair, which had been scheduled for late February. The company cited the need to "preserve the event's high standard of quality," though the real cause is unmistakable: the island's fuel shortages have made large-scale events logistically impossible. Last year's fair closed with an $18 million auction and the company reported record sales of $827 million in 2025.

Adding to the sense of compounding disaster, a fire broke out at the Ñico López Refinery in Havana on Friday. The BBC reported that the blaze was brought under control quickly, but the incident underscored the fragility of Cuba's remaining energy infrastructure at the worst possible moment.

The Cuban government has implemented emergency rationing measures. State-owned companies have moved to a four-day work week, school days have been shortened, fuel sales restricted, and some tourist hotels have been shut down or consolidated to conserve electricity . Russians remaining on the island reported being moved to lower-grade hotels where power supply was more stable .

Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel has condemned the US actions but left the door open to negotiations, saying Cuba is "prepared to hold talks with Washington" but "without pressure or preconditions" . The Kremlin, for its part, has described the situation as "truly critical" and accused the US of attempting to "suffocate" Cuba . Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow stood in "solidarity with Cuba" and was "ready to provide our friends with all necessary support" .

But the practical limits of that solidarity are evident. Russia remains absorbed by its war in Ukraine and is engaged in sensitive negotiations with the Trump administration — leaving little appetite for moves that could provoke Washington . China has also weighed in, with a foreign ministry spokesperson saying Beijing "stands firmly against the inhumane actions that deprive the Cuban people of their right to subsistence and development" .

Analysts see the situation as potentially regime-threatening. Robert Munks, head of Americas research at Verisk Maplecroft, told CNBC that "the odds are shortening that President Díaz-Canel will be forced from power in the weeks or months ahead in a Maduro-style managed transition" . Par Kumaraswami, a professor of Latin American Studies at the University of Nottingham, offered a more nuanced view, noting that while there is "frustration with the difficulties of daily life," many Cubans are "resolved to resist threats to their national sovereignty" and a "new wave of patriotism has emerged" .

The Trump administration has been explicit about its goals. President Trump has called Cuba's government "an unusual and extraordinary threat" and told Cubans to "make a deal before it's too late." He jokingly called Secretary of State Marco Rubio "a next President of Cuba," suggesting Rubio could play a role in a potential political transition . The US has also pressured Nicaragua to end visa-free travel for Cubans, cutting off a key migration safety valve .

For Cuba, the question is no longer whether the crisis will worsen but how long the government can hold out. Unlike in previous downturns, Havana has no deep-pocketed patron willing to absorb the costs of defying Washington. The Soviet Union is gone, Venezuela's government has been toppled, and neither Russia nor China appears prepared to challenge an American oil blockade in the Caribbean. Brazil's President Lula da Silva has condemned the blockade and called for humanitarian assistance, but has not offered to supply oil himself.

The island's 11 million residents, meanwhile, are enduring blackouts, fuel rationing, shortened work weeks, and an economy in freefall — caught between a government that says surrender is not an option and an American administration that appears intent on making the alternative untenable.