Lancet Study Estimates 75,000 Violent Deaths in Gaza's First Sixteen Months — 35 Percent Above Official Count

On a February evening in 2026, as Gaza's ceasefire held into its fifth month, a team of researchers from three continents published findings in The Lancet Global Health that may permanently alter how the world understands what happened in the first sixteen months of the war. The Gaza Mortality Survey — a population-representative household study interviewing 2,000 families across the territory — estimated 75,200 violent deaths between October 7, 2023 and January 5, 2025 Gaza death toll exceeds 75,000 as independent data verify lossaljazeera.com·SecondaryThe true human cost of Israel’s genocidal war on the Gaza Strip has far exceeded previous official estimates, with independent research published in the world’s leading medical journals verifying more than 75,000 “violent deaths” by early 2025. The findings, emerging from a landmark series of scientific papers, suggest that administrative records from the Gaza Ministry of Health (MoH) represent a conservative “floor” rather than an overcount, and provide a rigorous bedrock to the scale of.... That figure sits 34.7 percent above the 49,090 deaths recorded by the Gaza Ministry of Health for the same period, and suggests that administrative casualty counts represented not an inflation, as critics long alleged, but a conservative floor.

The study, led by Michael Spagat, a professor of economics at Royal Holloway University of London who has spent more than two decades calculating conflict casualties, marks a methodological departure from earlier efforts to quantify the war's toll. A January 2025 Lancet paper had used statistical capture-recapture modelling to estimate 64,260 deaths during the conflict's first nine months Gaza death toll exceeds 75,000 as independent data verify lossaljazeera.com·SecondaryThe true human cost of Israel’s genocidal war on the Gaza Strip has far exceeded previous official estimates, with independent research published in the world’s leading medical journals verifying more than 75,000 “violent deaths” by early 2025. The findings, emerging from a landmark series of scientific papers, suggest that administrative records from the Gaza Ministry of Health (MoH) represent a conservative “floor” rather than an overcount, and provide a rigorous bedrock to the scale of.... That approach relied on probability to flag undercounts. The new research shifts the foundation from mathematical estimation to empirical verification through direct household interviews conducted by experienced Palestinian pollsters Gaza death toll in early part of war far higher than reported, says Lancet studytheguardian.com·SecondaryResearch suggests more than 75,000 killed in the first 16 months of conflict, 25,000 more than announced at the time More than 75,000 people were killed in the first 16 months of the two-year war in Gaza, at least 25,000 more than the death toll announced by local authorities at the time, according to a study published on Wednesday in the Lancet medical journal..

The demographic breakdown carries particular significance for a debate that has consumed policymakers, diplomats and military analysts since the war's earliest weeks. Women, children and the elderly comprised 56.2 percent of the documented violent deaths — a proportion remarkably consistent with official Palestinian reporting and one that directly contradicts Israeli claims of near-parity between combatant and civilian casualties Gaza death toll exceeds 75,000 as independent data verify lossaljazeera.com·SecondaryThe true human cost of Israel’s genocidal war on the Gaza Strip has far exceeded previous official estimates, with independent research published in the world’s leading medical journals verifying more than 75,000 “violent deaths” by early 2025. The findings, emerging from a landmark series of scientific papers, suggest that administrative records from the Gaza Ministry of Health (MoH) represent a conservative “floor” rather than an overcount, and provide a rigorous bedrock to the scale of.... Israeli officials have repeatedly asserted that their strikes killed roughly equal numbers of Hamas fighters and civilians, a characterisation the survey data does not support.

Yet the Israeli position has itself evolved in ways that deserve close attention. In January 2026, a senior Israeli army official told journalists that the military accepted approximately 70,000 Palestinians had been killed during the war — a figure far closer to the Lancet estimate than to earlier Israeli dismissals of Gaza Health Ministry data as Hamas propaganda Gaza death toll in early part of war far higher than reported, says Lancet studytheguardian.com·SecondaryResearch suggests more than 75,000 killed in the first 16 months of conflict, 25,000 more than announced at the time More than 75,000 people were killed in the first 16 months of the two-year war in Gaza, at least 25,000 more than the death toll announced by local authorities at the time, according to a study published on Wednesday in the Lancet medical journal.. That quiet concession, reported without fanfare, represents a significant shift from years of official attacks on Palestinian casualty recording. It also raises an uncomfortable question: if Israel's own intelligence assessment broadly aligns with independent research, what does that say about the public messaging that preceded it?

The study confronts a paradox that researchers describe as central to understanding mortality in Gaza. The more devastating the harm inflicted on the health system, the more difficult it becomes to count the dead Gaza death toll exceeds 75,000 as independent data verify lossaljazeera.com·SecondaryThe true human cost of Israel’s genocidal war on the Gaza Strip has far exceeded previous official estimates, with independent research published in the world’s leading medical journals verifying more than 75,000 “violent deaths” by early 2025. The findings, emerging from a landmark series of scientific papers, suggest that administrative records from the Gaza Ministry of Health (MoH) represent a conservative “floor” rather than an overcount, and provide a rigorous bedrock to the scale of.... Hospitals that would normally register deaths were themselves destroyed. Bodies remained under rubble or were mutilated beyond recognition. Administrative centres that processed death certificates ceased to function. The infrastructure of documentation collapsed alongside the infrastructure of care — meaning the official count was guaranteed to fall further behind reality precisely when the killing intensified.

Beyond direct violence, the survey estimated 16,300 non-violent deaths during the study period, including 8,540 excess deaths attributed to the deterioration of living conditions and the blockade-induced collapse of the medical sector Gaza death toll exceeds 75,000 as independent data verify lossaljazeera.com·SecondaryThe true human cost of Israel’s genocidal war on the Gaza Strip has far exceeded previous official estimates, with independent research published in the world’s leading medical journals verifying more than 75,000 “violent deaths” by early 2025. The findings, emerging from a landmark series of scientific papers, suggest that administrative records from the Gaza Ministry of Health (MoH) represent a conservative “floor” rather than an overcount, and provide a rigorous bedrock to the scale of.... Spagat was careful to distinguish these findings from a widely cited 2024 Lancet correspondence that projected four indirect deaths for every direct death — a ratio he considers unsupported by the Gaza evidence. "There is a huge variation depending on the specific circumstances of every conflict," Spagat told The Guardian. "In Kosovo almost all the deaths were violent. In somewhere like Darfur, you see something very different" Gaza death toll in early part of war far higher than reported, says Lancet studytheguardian.com·SecondaryResearch suggests more than 75,000 killed in the first 16 months of conflict, 25,000 more than announced at the time More than 75,000 people were killed in the first 16 months of the two-year war in Gaza, at least 25,000 more than the death toll announced by local authorities at the time, according to a study published on Wednesday in the Lancet medical journal..

That methodological caution is worth noting, because it cuts against the grain of both maximalist and minimalist accounts of the war's toll. The 75,200 figure is substantially higher than official Palestinian reporting but considerably lower than some activist estimates that placed total deaths — direct and indirect — well above 100,000 by early 2025. Spagat himself acknowledged what he called a desensitisation effect: "I would push back on the notion that this is a small number of deaths," he said. "But, yes, it's much lower than what many people say and believe" Gaza death toll in early part of war far higher than reported, says Lancet studytheguardian.com·SecondaryResearch suggests more than 75,000 killed in the first 16 months of conflict, 25,000 more than announced at the time More than 75,000 people were killed in the first 16 months of the two-year war in Gaza, at least 25,000 more than the death toll announced by local authorities at the time, according to a study published on Wednesday in the Lancet medical journal..

The Lancet publication did not emerge in an editorial vacuum. Critics have questioned whether the journal's sustained focus on Gaza reflects scientific inquiry or political advocacy. A February 2026 analysis in the Israeli press argued that The Lancet had shifted from dispassionate research toward moral positioning on the conflict, pointing to editorial framing choices that structure what counts as a reasonable question. Separately, a January 2026 correspondence in the same journal called for greater rigour over rhetoric in Gaza-related publications, urging a more disciplined separation of data from editorial positioning. These criticisms highlight a real tension in conflict epidemiology: the same research that produces vital mortality data inevitably enters a political battlefield where numbers are weaponised by all sides.

A companion study published in eClinicalMedicine quantified another dimension of the war's toll that has received less attention: injury. Researchers from Duke University and Gaza's al-Shifa Hospital estimated 116,020 cumulative injuries as of April 30, 2025, with between 29,000 and 46,000 requiring complex reconstructive surgery Gaza death toll exceeds 75,000 as independent data verify lossaljazeera.com·SecondaryThe true human cost of Israel’s genocidal war on the Gaza Strip has far exceeded previous official estimates, with independent research published in the world’s leading medical journals verifying more than 75,000 “violent deaths” by early 2025. The findings, emerging from a landmark series of scientific papers, suggest that administrative records from the Gaza Ministry of Health (MoH) represent a conservative “floor” rather than an overcount, and provide a rigorous bedrock to the scale of.... More than 80 percent resulted from explosions — primarily air attacks and shelling in densely populated urban areas. The scale of the surgical backlog defies any realistic timeline for recovery. Ash Patel, a surgeon and co-author, estimated that even if surgical capacity were restored to pre-war levels, working through the reconstructive caseload would take approximately a decade Gaza death toll exceeds 75,000 as independent data verify lossaljazeera.com·SecondaryThe true human cost of Israel’s genocidal war on the Gaza Strip has far exceeded previous official estimates, with independent research published in the world’s leading medical journals verifying more than 75,000 “violent deaths” by early 2025. The findings, emerging from a landmark series of scientific papers, suggest that administrative records from the Gaza Ministry of Health (MoH) represent a conservative “floor” rather than an overcount, and provide a rigorous bedrock to the scale of....

Before the war, Gaza had eight board-certified plastic and reconstructive surgeons for 2.2 million people. By May 2025, only 12 of 36 hospitals remained capable of providing care beyond emergency triage, with roughly 2,000 beds available — down from more than 3,000 Gaza death toll exceeds 75,000 as independent data verify lossaljazeera.com·SecondaryThe true human cost of Israel’s genocidal war on the Gaza Strip has far exceeded previous official estimates, with independent research published in the world’s leading medical journals verifying more than 75,000 “violent deaths” by early 2025. The findings, emerging from a landmark series of scientific papers, suggest that administrative records from the Gaza Ministry of Health (MoH) represent a conservative “floor” rather than an overcount, and provide a rigorous bedrock to the scale of.... The clinical challenge is compounded by the use of incendiary weapons that produce severe burns alongside blast-related fractures. Without prompt treatment, patients face high risks of wound infection, sepsis and permanent disability. The data suggest tens of thousands of Palestinians will live with surgically addressable disabilities for life unless international reconstructive capacity is massively expanded.

The research lands at a moment when the ceasefire, brokered in October 2025, remains fragile and the question of Gaza's political future is unresolved. A technocratic committee formed to manage the territory's governance has yet to enter Gaza, with Palestinian Authority sources blaming Israeli obstruction. The humanitarian situation, while improved since the ceasefire, remains dire in northern Gaza, where famine was declared by UN-backed experts in August 2025.

For policymakers weighing the lessons of the conflict, the Lancet findings present a challenge that transcends the immediate crisis. If a household survey can document a 35 percent undercount in a territory smaller than most European cities, what does that imply about casualty recording in larger, more fragmented conflict zones where no comparable research infrastructure exists? The study's authors are explicit that reaching a definitive death toll will require years and significant resources. "It is not a given that there will be a multimillion-pound research project to reconstruct what actually happened," Spagat said. "It will be a long time before we get to a full accounting of all the people killed in Gaza, if we ever get there" Gaza death toll in early part of war far higher than reported, says Lancet studytheguardian.com·SecondaryResearch suggests more than 75,000 killed in the first 16 months of conflict, 25,000 more than announced at the time More than 75,000 people were killed in the first 16 months of the two-year war in Gaza, at least 25,000 more than the death toll announced by local authorities at the time, according to a study published on Wednesday in the Lancet medical journal..